King-Queen Suited on a Dry Eight-High Flop: Check or Bet?
DECISION POINT: In a no-limit hold'em tournament, a middle position player raises, and it folds to you on the button where you call with K?Q?. The small blind folds and the big blind calls. The flop comes 2?5?8?. Both the big blind and the MP player check. Action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: In this hand, we called preflop with king-queen suited in position against two opponents. They both check to us on a fairly dry flop. Do we check or bet?
When deciding whether or not to take a stab at a pot without having connected with the flop, there are several factors to consider.
The first should be how likely we believe we are to win the pot uncontested with a bet. This is influenced by the number of opponents on the flop, board texture, position, and opponent hand ranges.
In this case we have a very dry flop with two opponents who have both checked. This makes it less likely that anyone has connected with the board. This also makes taking a stab at the pot much more profitable than situations with more opponents, more coordinated flops, or if we were out of position.
We should additionally consider how much equity our hand may have when our bet is called. In this case, we have two overcards to the flop, so we can occasionally turn or river top pair when our bet is called. This adds to the overall profitability of our bluff.
Taking a stab at the flop is profitable.
Betting is the best play.
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